ML for Retention
What is player LTV?
Player lifetime value is the total net revenue a single player is expected to generate over their whole relationship with an operator, after bonuses and payment costs.
Historical LTV vs predicted LTV
Historical LTV is arithmetic - what a player has produced so far. Predicted LTV is a model - what they are expected to produce from here. Acquisition decisions need the predicted version, because by the time historical LTV is meaningful the acquisition budget was spent months ago.
The payback window
In iGaming, player payback commonly runs several months from first deposit. That lag is the whole reason LTV prediction matters: a channel that looks unprofitable in week two can be the best channel you have by month six, and the reverse is equally common. Judging acquisition on first-week revenue systematically funds the wrong channels.
Why bonus cost belongs inside LTV
An LTV number that ignores bonus liability, wagering completion rates, and payment-processing cost is a gross-revenue number wearing an LTV label. Bonus hunters can post strong deposit figures and negative net contribution. Any LTV used for budget decisions has to be net.
How it connects to retention
LTV and churn risk together give you the only ranking that matters: expected value at risk. A high-risk low-LTV player is not worth an intervention. A moderate-risk high-LTV player usually is. Ranking a retention worklist by risk alone sends your team to the cheapest players in the book.
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